Is the Vancouver housing market recovering in late 2026? Not in price. Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark was $1,068,600 in October 2026, down 5.2% on the year, and sales were 22.5% below the ten-year average. Sales did rise from September in every property type, and the policy direction in Victoria has reversed, which is why the sales trough may be behind us even if the price trough isn't.

I write a market update every month for the people on my list, and the full November edition, with the area tables and the hotsheet data for North Vancouver, Vancouver East, and Vancouver West, went out by email. This post is the longer, calmer version of its argument. Between October 17 and October 28, Vancouver's city council, the provincial government, and the Bank of Canada all changed course. Two of them changed in opposite directions. I want to take them one at a time, because you can't read October's numbers without them.

The Bank of Canada raised rates into a stalled economy

On October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%, the first increase since July 2023. The usual reason to raise rates is an economy running hot. This one isn't. Statistics Canada reported no growth in July or August, its early estimate for September is a small contraction, and the core inflation measures the Bank watches are running under 2%.

What the Bank is reacting to is energy. Oil has been pushed higher by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and headline inflation hit 3.1% in September on the back of gasoline. The Bank's statement said the increase was meant to keep those prices from spreading into wages and everything else, that there could be a need to go further, and that it would proceed carefully. Markets price a small chance of a second hike at the December 9 decision.

For a Vancouver mortgage, the practical effects are these. Variable rates rose a quarter point the same day. Fixed rates barely moved, because the five-year Government of Canada bond that prices them had already climbed from 3.06% in early July to about 3.5%, and the best insured five-year fixed sits around 4.4%. The less visible effect is on rental construction: a large share of the purpose-built rental started in the past three years was financed with high-leverage, CMHC-insured loans that only work at low rates and tight vacancy. Those projects now face higher rates while vacancy has risen and asking rents sit below a year ago. That is a large part of why so many cranes have stopped.

The province is undoing nine years of housing policy

British Columbia elected a Conservative majority on October 24. Elections BC's final count runs November 6 to 10, and the Doerkson government will be sworn in after it, but the direction is already clear from what has been said since election night.

The provincial housing targets imposed on municipalities under the Housing Supply Act are going; the premier-designate committed to that on October 30. The small-scale multi-unit housing law, which required municipalities to allow four to six homes on most single-family lots, is to be amended at a minimum so that councils regain control. There is talk of loosening the short-term rental rules. A party spokesperson put the principle plainly: local governments are not a branch office of Victoria. On the money side, the commitments are no new taxes and no increases, a $1,000 income tax cut from 2027, and lower construction charges, with the speculation and vacancy tax and the foreign buyer tax staying in place.

The piece to watch is the federal GST. Ottawa offered every province a deal in the spring on sales tax for new homes. Ontario took it and cut its share; British Columbia under the previous government did not. The Ontario result is instructive. Urbanation reports that new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area doubled from a year earlier in the third quarter, to 760 units, the second consecutive quarter of growth, and that investment groups buying finished units in bulk accounted for 45% of them. That is movement rather than a recovery, in a market that had none. A BC government elected on lower building costs will find the federal offer hard to leave on the table, and if it takes it, the developers holding finished condos in Metro Vancouver get a pricing tool they haven't had.

The reversal cuts both ways. The targets and the multiplex law were the supply side of the last government's plan. Hand zoning back to councils, most of them elected by people who already own homes, and the likely result is fewer new homes in the suburbs over the next few years. Fewer new homes and lower taxes on capital is the recipe for a sentiment bounce in resale prices and a longer slump in construction. I think that is the base case.

The City of Vancouver went the other way

On October 17 Vancouver elected Pete Fry mayor, 57,194 votes to Ken Sim's 41,040 on election night, and a council of Greens with four seats plus the mayor, COPE with four, OneCity with one, and ABC with one. Fry campaigned on pre-approved building designs, faster low-rise permits, and lifting the pause on new supportive housing. COPE's Sean Orr has already moved at council to raise the empty homes tax and to shift more of the property tax onto non-resident investors, and with the Greens, COPE now has the votes to pass what it wants.

The City of Vancouver is now the one place in the region where the political direction points toward more cost on owners and developers while the province points the other way. Capital goes where it is welcome. Expect builders to look harder at Burnaby, Surrey, and the North Shore before the city, and expect the city's own supply pipeline, already thin, to thin further. For a homeowner in Vancouver East or on the Westside, that means less new competition when you sell, and a council more interested in taxing a second property than in making it easier to build one.

What October's numbers show

Greater Vancouver REALTORS reported 2,024 sales in October 2026, down 10.2% from a year earlier and 22.5% below the ten-year average. New listings were 4,805, down 11.6%. Active listings were 15,688, down 4.3% on the year and 24% above the ten-year average. The sales-to-active ratio was 13.4% overall: 11.6% for detached, 16.5% for townhomes, 13.5% for apartments. The board's own reading is that buyers and sellers stepped back during a rate hike and a snap election to recalibrate.

That is true and incomplete. Month over month, sales rose in every segment off September's low: detached up 12%, townhomes up 31%, apartments up 15%. Prices kept drifting. The composite benchmark fell 0.7% on the month to $1,068,600, down 5.2% on the year and 10.1% over three years. Detached was $1,775,200, down 7.0% on the year; townhomes $1,006,500, down 5.5%; apartments $673,400, down 5.9%.

In the three areas I work most, three of nine segments rose on the month, against two in September:

Two patterns stand out. First, detached inventory tightened everywhere at month end, to 334 houses for sale in North Vancouver from 385, 622 in Vancouver East from 692, and 706 on the Westside from 729. With sales up and listings down, the detached sales-to-active ratios jumped to 19.2%, 14.0%, and 9.2%, from 15.3%, 9.4%, and 6.6% in September. North Vancouver detached, down just 2.2% on the year, is the firmest segment in the region and within a point of the 20% line the board treats as a seller's market.

Second, the condo bounce came where the price fell. North Vancouver condo sales nearly doubled from September, to 75, at a benchmark that dropped 4.3% in a single month. Sellers who cut found buyers. Vancouver West condos were the one segment that fell from September, 198 sales against 604 new condo listings.

What the hotsheets say about negotiation

Each month I match MLS activity in North Vancouver, Vancouver East, and Vancouver West by address, to see how many "new" listings are old listings coming back and how far sellers are moving. For October 10 to November 3: 1,545 homes were newly listed, 1,229 were pulled, 633 sold, and 552 went pending. Of the new listings, 562, or 36.4%, were the same address as one of the pulled ones, against 37.2% a month earlier. 83% of those came back cheaper, with a median cut of 4.1%.

The closing numbers barely moved. 85% of the 633 sales closed below asking, and the median sale was 96.8% of list. Houses negotiated harder than condos and townhomes, 95.6% against 97.2%, and the Westside was the deepest, with 93% of house sales below asking at a median of 94.6% of list. Vancouver East houses were the one segment with real competition, where about one sale in six went over asking. 56 homes across the three areas sold over list, 17 of them houses.

Where I land

The bear market in prices is not over. The construction standstill and the finished, unsold condos guarantee a slow grind in the segments where the investor used to be, and the Bank of Canada has just made money more expensive at a moment when the economy can least afford it. But the sales trough probably is behind us. I expect a modest bounce in activity over the winter as the policy headlines turn, rate holds expire, and the buyers who stepped back in October step forward.

If you own a house in North Vancouver, you have the strongest hand in the region and should price to the market and expect competition. If you own a condo, the buyers who came back in October came back for the price cuts, and a GST change would make new product cheaper against yours; decide whether to sell before that or to hold through it. If you are buying, get a rate hold before December 9, assume one more hike is possible when you choose fixed or variable, and ask for the listing history on everything, because more than a third of what you see has been for sale before.

Frequently asked questions

Did the Bank of Canada raise rates in October 2026?
Yes. On October 28, 2026 the Bank raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, the first increase since July 2023, citing higher energy prices. It said there could be a need to raise rates further and that it would proceed carefully. The next decision is December 9.

What will the BC Conservative government change for housing?
The premier-designate has committed to removing the provincial housing targets on municipalities and to amending the small-scale multi-unit housing law so that councils regain control over density. The platform promised no new taxes, a $1,000 income tax cut from 2027, and lower construction charges, while keeping the speculation and vacancy tax and the foreign buyer tax. None of it is law until the legislature sits.

Are Vancouver home prices going down in 2026?
Yes, slowly. The Greater Vancouver composite benchmark was $1,068,600 in October 2026, down 0.7% on the month, 5.2% on the year, and 10.1% over three years. Detached homes are down 7.0% on the year, townhomes 5.5%, and apartments 5.9%. Sales rose from September in every property type.

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Vancouver right now?
By the board's measure, a sales-to-active ratio under 12% pressures prices down and over 20% pressures them up. The region sat at 13.4% in October. Among my areas, North Vancouver detached was at 19.2% and Vancouver West detached at 9.2%, so the answer depends on what and where you are buying.

Want to know where your home sits in this?

If you'd like a current value for your place, send me the address and I'll come back with a number, no strings. If there's a move in your next chapter, book a strategy session and we'll map every step: the sale, the financing, the purchase, and the timing. Or call or text 604-313-9805.

Josh Kepkay
Personal Real Estate Corporation
Top 3% of Greater Vancouver Realtors
Medallion Club since 2022
604-313-9805 | Real Broker | [email protected]
www.VancouverRealEstateToday.ca

Sources: Greater Vancouver REALTORS October 2026 statistics package and month-end listing inventory; MLS hotsheet activity for North Vancouver, Vancouver East, and Vancouver West, October 10 to November 3, 2026; Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 decision and Monetary Policy Report; Statistics Canada GDP release, October 30, 2026; Urbanation Q3 2026 GTHA condo report; City of Vancouver election-night results; Elections BC; reporting on the premier-designate's housing commitments, October 30, 2026. Market commentary reflects general observation and is not financial, tax, legal, or voting advice.