Demand turns before prices do

June 2026 Market Update · Metro Vancouver · Josh Kepkay

Here's a discipline worth stealing from the sharpest investors I know: watch what buyers do, not what headlines say. Last month I wrote that sales slow before prices. This month the same rule started running in reverse. Metro Vancouver just posted its first broad-based sales gain in years, and every property type sold in higher numbers than a year ago.

One month is a data point, not a trend. But every trend starts as a data point, and this one landed in the same month new listings slowed. You don't need to call the bottom. Nobody rings a bell. You need to know which way the current is pulling while you still have room to position, and that's exactly what this issue is for.

Now, the story under the surface. The pre-sale condo market has cracked, and governments just confirmed how serious it is. Ottawa and Victoria announced a partnership to convert more than 2,200 unsold Vancouver condos into affordable housing, and Ontario stood up a $1.3 billion fund to buy blocks of unsold Toronto inventory. Governments don't buy condos when things are fine.

The part that should get your attention: there are reports that some banks are closing pre-sale purchases using stale appraisals, valuing units at the original contract price instead of what they're worth today. A condo bought pre-construction for $1 million that appraises at $800,000 now can still get financed at the old number, because the same banks lent on the construction and need those deals to close.

Here's what that means for you, and it depends on where you sit. If you've already got a deposit in a pre-sale and you're worried about qualifying at completion, that stale appraisal is on your side. It's what lets the financing come together at the price you signed at, instead of leaving you to cover a shortfall in cash or walk away and forfeit your deposit. If you haven't locked your mortgage yet, find out who financed the building's construction and start the conversation there. That lender wants the project to complete as much as you do, and they're often the most motivated to make your numbers work. If you're shopping resale condos instead, discounted developer inventory is your negotiating benchmark. And when governments start buying up housing, they're signalling they intend to put a floor under this market.

Market Snapshot

Metro Vancouver, June 2026. Source: Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (gvrealtors.ca)

June delivered the headline of the year so far: 2,390 sales, up 9.6% year-over-year, with detached, townhomes, and condos all gaining at once. GVR chief economist Andrew Lis called gains across every home type a rarity in recent years and a possible early sign of a shift. Detached led at up 13.7%, townhomes rose 11.4%, and condos rose 6.1%.

Look closely at those tiles. The annual declines grab headlines, but the monthly changes are essentially zero. The 6% drop already happened, and prices have been flat for months. Meanwhile 17,017 active listings sits 3.1% below last June, new listings fell 6%, and Lis flagged that standing inventory has stopped climbing and may be starting to reverse. Rising demand against slowing supply is the pattern that ends buyer's markets, and it usually shows up in this data months before it shows up in prices.

A closer look by area

Detached, townhome, and condo benchmarks, with the change versus a year ago.

North Vancouver

Here's the number almost nobody will report, buried in the six-month column of the price index: North Vancouver's overall benchmark is up 2.4% since December, with detached up 3.0%, while the region slipped 1.4% over the same stretch. The recovery the headlines will eventually describe started here months ago. Demand agrees, with 86 detached sales in June, up 28% from a year earlier.

Vancouver

Townhomes are the strength story on both sides of the city. Vancouver East attached sales jumped roughly 33% year-over-year, and region-wide the townhome segment carries a 17.8% sales-to-active ratio, the strongest of any property type and within sight of seller's territory. On the Westside, the detached benchmark rose 0.6% on the month and 4.0% over three months even with the annual figure still deep in the red. Condos remain the most negotiable segment, which lines up exactly with the pre-sale pressure I covered up top.

If you're thinking about selling: the first buyers back into a recovering market hunt hardest for value, and they punish stale pricing. The homes drawing offers right now are priced to the current benchmark rather than the 2022 memory. Townhome sellers have the most support of any segment. Detached sellers finally have momentum, but at a 12% ratio the leverage hasn't flipped yet, so pricing and presentation still decide everything. And if you own a condo near new construction, know that discounted developer inventory is your real competition, which makes sharp positioning essential.

If you're looking to buy: you still hold real leverage, but the shape of the window is changing. Inventory sits about 30% above the seasonal norm, so choice remains excellent, yet new listings and standing inventory are now both below last year's levels while sales rise. If that continues, negotiating room narrows first in townhomes, where competition is already stiffest. In condos, take your time and press your advantage, and if a pre-sale completion is in your future, order your own current appraisal before you commit to anything.

Featured Listings

Two of these are open this Saturday afternoon. Come say hello.

The real question this month is simple: if demand keeps rising while listings keep slowing, where do you want to be standing when the leverage shifts? Whether you're weighing a sale this year, watching for the right buy, or just want a current read on what your home is worth against these numbers, I'm glad to sit down and map it out with you. Thirty minutes, no pressure, and you'll leave with a clear picture either way.

This market update is for informational purposes only. Market figures are drawn from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® MLS® statistics for June 2026 and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Commentary on pre-sale market conditions reflects third-party reporting and general information, not financial or legal advice. Not intended to solicit properties currently listed for sale with another brokerage.